Monitoring and Forecasting of Crops' Yield in North and South Kordofan and West Darfor States, Sudan

Fattma Yousuf Elamin Mohamed, Mukhtar Ahmed Mustafa

Abstract


Monthly normal (1971-2000) potential evapotranspiration (PET) and rainfall versus 10-day interval (dekad) relationships during the growing season were used for delineating growth periods for millet, sorghum, sesame and groundnut grown in Al-Nuhud, Al-Geneina and Babanusa. An annual water satisfaction index (WSI) was calculated for each of ten years (1991-2000) using actual dekadal rainfall and PET data. Seasonal variation of rainfall was moderate and its within-season variation was high. The seasonal and within-season variation of evaporation were low. In most dekads when the crop water requirement was greater than rainfall, WSI < 100, and when CWR < rainfall, WSI = 100. In Al-Nuhud and Babanusa, millet yield ranged from 6 kg/fed in 1995 to 108 kg/fed in 1994 with a mean of 45 kg/fed and a C.V. of 68%. It ranged from 88 kg/fed in 1993 to 291 kg/fed in 1994 with a mean of 197 kg/fed and a C.V. of 33% for Al-Geneina. Sorghum yield ranged from 5 kg/fed in 1996 to 167 kg/fed in 1999 with a mean of 84 kg/fed and a C.V. of 53% for Al-Nuhud and Babanusa, and from 114 kg/fed in 1993 to 456 kg/fed in 1994 with a mean of 260 kg/fed and a C.V. of 41% for Al-Geneina. Sesame yield ranged from 10 kg/fed in 1995 to 90 kg/fed in 1999 with a mean of 33 kg/fed and a C.V. of 81 for Al-Nuhud and Babanusa, and from 50 kg/fed in 1999 to 180 kg/fed in 1997 with a mean of 101 kg/fed and a C.V. of 40% for Al-Geneina. Groundnut yield ranged from 27 kg/fed (1993) to 300 kg/fed (1999) with a mean of 144 kg/fed and a C.V. of 55 for Al-Nuhud and Babanusa, and from 50 kg/fed in 1999 to 180 kg/fed in 1997 with a mean of 101 kg/fed a C.V. of 40% for Al-Geneina. In most cases, crop yield increased significantly with increase of WSI or seasonal rainfall. However, the coefficients of determination were low indicating the interference of other determinant factors of crop yield. In view of this, it is recommended to test the validity of using WSI as a predictor of crop yield using actually measured yield data and to include other yield determinants.

Keywords


WSI, CWR; rain - fed agriculture;Kord ofan; Darfor

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